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 Resources

Research

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CV/

Biosketch

Center for Climate
Risk Management

  1. Budescu, D. V., R. Lempert, S. Broomell, and K. Keller: Aided and unaided decision making with imprecise probabilities. In review at the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making (2012).
  2. Bhat, S.K., M. Haran, R. Olson, and K. Keller:  Inferring Likelihoods and Climate System Characteristics from Climate Models and Multiple Tracers, accepted for publication in Environmetrics (2012).
  3. Applegate, P. J., Kirchner, N., Stone, E. J., Keller, K., and Greve, R., An assessment of key parametric uncertainties in projections of Greenland Ice Sheet behavior. Accepted for publication in The Cryosphere (2012).
  4. Keller, K: Bayesian decision theory and climate change. Invited contribution to and in the press at Encyclopedia of Energy, Natural Resource and Environmental Economics, edited by Jay Shogren, Elsevier Academic Press (2012).
  5. Terando, A., K. Keller, and W. Easterling: Probabilistic Projections of Agro-Climate Indices in North America, in the press at the Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmosphere (2012).
  6. Lempert, R., R Sriver, and K. Keller: Characterizing Uncertain Sea Level Rise Projections to Support Infrastructure Investment Decisions, California Energy Commission, Publication Number: CEC-500-2012-056 (2012).
  7. Hall, J., R. J. Lempert, K. Keller, A. Hackbarth, C. Mijere, and D. J. McInerney: Robust climate policies under uncertainty: A comparison of Robust Decision-Making and Info-Gap methods, in the press at Risk Analysis (2012).
  8. Applegate, P. J.., N. M. Urban, K. Keller, T. V. Lowell, B. J. C. Laabs, M. A. Kelly, and R. B. Alley, Estimating moraine ages from cosmogenic exposure dates: Matching geomorphic process models to exposure dates from single landforms. Quaternary Research, in the press (2012).
  9. Tuana, N., R. Sriver, T. Svoboda, R. Tonkonojenkov, P. Irvine, J. Haqq-Misra, and K Keller: Towards Integrated Ethical and Scientific Analysis of Geoengineering: A Research Agenda, in the press, Ethics, Policy & Environment (2012).
  10. Irvine, P., Sriver, R. and Keller, K.: Strong tension between the objectives to reduce sea-level rise and rates of temperature change through solar radiation management, Nature Climate Change, 2, 97–100, doi:10.1038/nclimate1351doi:10.1038/nclimate1351, (2012).
  11. Olson, R., R. Sriver, M. Goes, N. M. Urban, H. D. Matthews, M. Haran and K. Keller: A climate sensitivity estimate using global average observations and an Earth System model with a dynamic 3D ocean, Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmosphere, VOL. 117, D04103, doi:10.1029/2011JD016620, (2012). (Selected for a Research highlight in EOS.)
  12. McInerney, D., R. Lempert, and K. Keller What are robust strategies in the face of uncertain climate threshold responses?, doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0377-1, Climatic Change (2011).
  13. Xiao, J.,  K. J. Davis, N. M. Urban, K. Keller, and N. Z. Saliendra: Regional Upscaling of Eddy Flux Measurements in the Upper Midwest, USA: Influence of Land Cover Heterogeneity and Model Parameterization on Regional Carbon Fluxes, in the press at the Journal of Geophysical research - Biogeosciences, 116, G00J06, 15 PP., doi:10.1029/2010JG001568, (2011).
  14. Bhat, K.S., Haran, M., Terando, A., Tonkonojenkov, R., and Keller, K.: Bayesian Model Averaging for Climate Projections,  Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Volume 16, Number 4, Pages 606–628, DOI: 10.1007/s13253-011-0069-3 (2011).
  15. Keller, K.: Conveyor Belt Circulation, Chapter in the "Encyclopedia of Climate and Weather" (2nd Edition), Oxford University Press, (2011).
  16. Terando, A., W. E. Easterling, K. Keller, and D. R. Easterling: Observed and modeled 20th century spatial and temporal patterns of agro-climate indices in North America.  Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI4168.1, early online publication (2011).
  17. Svoboda, T., Klaus Keller, Marlos Goes, and Nancy Tuana: Sulfate Aerosol Geoengineering: The Question of Justice, Public Affairs Quarterly, 25, p. 157-180, (2011).
  18. Goes, M, K. Keller, and N. Tuana: The economics (or lack thereof) of aerosol geoengineering, Climatic Change, Volume 109, Numbers 3-4, Pages 719-744 (2011).
  19. Goes, M., N. M. Urban, R. Tonkonojenkov, M. Haran, A. Schmittner, and K. Keller: What is the skill of ocean tracers in reducing uncertainties about ocean diapycnal mixing and projections of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation? Journal of Geophysical Research (Oceans), 115, C12006, 12 PP., doi:10.1029/2010JC006407 (2010)
  20. Urban, N. M. and K. Keller: Probabilistic hindcasts and projections of the coupled climate, carbon cycle, and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation systems: A Bayesian fusion of century-scale observations with a simple model, Tellus A, 62(5), 737-750, (2010).
  21. Schienke, E.W., S. D. Baum, N. Tuana, K. J. Davis, and K. Keller: Intrinsic Ethics Regarding Integrated Assessment Models for Climate Management, Science and Engineering Ethics, 10.1007/s11948-010-9209-3 (2010).
  22. Sriver, Ryan L., M. Goes, M. E. Mann, and K. Keller: Climate response to tropical cyclone-induced ocean mixing in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, Journal of Geophysical Research, Oceans, 115, C10042, doi:10.1029/2010JC006106 (2010).
  23. Applegate, P. J., Urban, N. M., Laabs, B. J. C., Keller, K., and Alley, R. B.: Modeling the statistical distributions of cosmogenic exposure dates from moraines. Geoscientific Model Development, 3, 293-307, 2010, (2010).
  24. Schienke, E.W., N. Tuana, D. A. Brown, K. J. Davis, K. Keller, J. S. Shortle, M. Stickler, and S. D. Baum: The Role of the NSF Broader Impacts Criterion in Enhancing Research Ethics Pedagogy, Social Epistemology, 23, 317-336 (2009).
  25. Schmittner, A., Urban, N.M., Keller, K. and Matthews, D.: Using ocean tracer observations to reduce the uncertainty of ocean vertical mixing and climate - carbon cycle projections', Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 23, GB4009, doi:10.1029/2008GB003421 (2009).
  26. Urban, M. N. and K. Keller: Complementary observational constraints on climate sensitivity, Geophysical Research Letters, L04708, doi:10.1029/2008GL036457 (2009).
  27. Keller, K., R.S.J. Tol, F.L. Toth, and G.W.Yohe: Abrupt climate change near the poles. Climatic Change, 91, 1-4 (2008).
  28. Ricciuto, D. M., K. J. Davis, and K. Keller: A Bayesian synthesis inversion of carbon cycle observations: How do observations reduce uncertainties about future sinks? Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 22, GB2030, doi:10.1029/2006GB002908 (2008).
  29. Keller, K., D. McInerney, and D. F. Bradford: Carbon dioxide sequestration: When and how much? Climate Change, 88:267-291 (2008).
  30. Baehr, J., D. McInerney, K. Keller, and J. Marotzke: Optimization of an observing system design for the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 25, 625-634 (2008).
  31. Brennan, K., R. Matear, and K. Keller: Measuring oxygen concentrations improves the detection capabilities of an ocean circulation observation array, Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, 113, C02019, doi:10.1029/2007JC004113 (2008).
  32. Keller, K. and D. McInerney: The dynamics of learning about a climate threshold. Climate Dynamics, 30, 321-332 (2008).
  33. Baehr, J., K. Keller, and J. Marotzke: Detecting potential changes in the meridional overturning circulation at 26 oN in the Atlantic. Climatic Change, 91, 11-27 (2008).
  34. McInerney, D.  and K. Keller: Economically optimal risk reduction strategies in the face of uncertain climate thresholds. Climatic Change, 91, 29-41 (2008).
  35. Keller, K., G. Yohe, and M. Schlesinger: Managing the risks of climate thresholds: Uncertainties and needed information. Climatic Change, 91, 5-10 (2008).
  36. S. Schneider, S. Semenov, Patwardhan, A., I. Burton, C. Magadza, M. Oppenheimer, B. Pittock, A. Rahman, J. Smith, A. Suarez, F. Yamin, K. Keller, A Todorov, A. Finkel, D. MacMynowski, M. Mastrandrea, M. Fuessel, J. Corfee-Morlot, R. Sukumar, J.-P. van Ypersele, and J. Zillman: Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change, Chapter 19 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, Working group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Cambridge University Press (2007).
  37. Keller, K., A. Robinson, M. Oppenheimer, and D.F. Bradford: The regrets of procrastination in climate policy. Environmental Research Letters, 2 024004 (4pp)   http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/2/2/024004, (2007). 
  38. Keller, K., C. Deutsch, M. G. Hall, and D. F. Bradford: Early detection of changes in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: Implications for the design of ocean observation systems. Journal of Climate, 20, 145-157 (2007).
  39. Keller, K., S.-R. Kim, J. Baehr, D. F. Bradford, and M. Oppenheimer: What is the economic value of information about climate thresholds? Book chapter in: Integrated Assessment of Human Induced Climate Change, Chief Editor: Michael Schlesinger, Cambridge University Press, (2007).
  40. O'Neill, B. C., P. Crutzen, A. Gruebler, M. Ha Duong, K. Keller, C. Kolstad, J. Koomey, A. Lange, M. Obersteiner, M. Oppenheimer, W. Pepper, W. Sanderson, M. Schlesinger, N. Treich, A. Ulph, M. Webster, and C. Wilson: Learning and climate change. Climate Policy, 6, 585-589 (2006).
  41. Min, D.-H. and K. Keller: Errors in estimated temporal tracer trends due to changes in the historical observation network: A case study of oxygen trends in the Southern Ocean. Ocean and Polar Research, 27, 189-195 (2005).
  42. Keller, K., M. G. Hall, S.-R. Kim, D. F. Bradford, and M. Oppenheimer: Avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Climatic Change, 73, 227-238 (2005).
  43. Keller, K., B. M. Bolker, and D. F. Bradford: Uncertain climate thresholds and economic optimal growth.  Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 48, 723-741 (2004).
  44. Moles, C. M., J. R. Banga, and K. Keller: Solving nonconvex climate control problems: Pitfalls and algorithm approaches. Applied Soft Computing, 5 (1), 35-44 (2004).
  45. Kraepiel, M. L., K. Keller, H. B. Chin, E. G. Malcolm, and F. M. M. Morel, Sources and variations of mercury in tuna, Environmental Science and Technology, 37, 5551-5558 (2003).
  46. Keller, K., R. Slater, M. Bender, and R. M. Key: Decadal scale trends in North Pacific nutrient and oxygen concentrations: Biological or physical explanation?  Deep-Sea Research, 49, 345-362 (2002).
  47. Gruber, N., K. Keller, and R. M. Key: What story is told by oceanic tracer concentrations?  Science, 290, 455 (2000).
  48. Keller, K., K. Tan, F. M. M. Morel, and D. F. Bradford: Preserving the ocean circulation: Implications for climate policy. Climatic Change, 47,17-43 (2000).
  49. Keller, K. and F. M. M. Morel: A model of carbon isotopic fractionation and active carbon uptake in phytoplankton.  Marine Ecology Progress Series, 182, 295-298 (1999).
  50. Kraepiel, M., K. Keller, and F. M. M. Morel: A model for metal adsorption on Montmorillonite. Journal of Colloid and Interface Science, 210, 43-54 (1999).
  51. Kraepiel, M., K. Keller, and F. M. M. Morel: On the acid-base chemistry of permanently charged minerals. Environmental Science and Technology, 32, 2829-2838 (1998).
  52. Gessler, G. and K. Keller: Vergleich verschiedener Verfahren zur Vergaerung von Bioabfaellen, Abfallwirtschaftsjournal, (7) 377-383 (1995).
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