Publications Summary Klaus Keller

107 Peer reviewed, Google h-index = 35, http://goo.gl/EFkukx

* served as primary advisor, ** served as co-advisor

Articles published in refereed journals

  1. Olson, R., K. L. Ruckert, W. Chang, K. Keller, M. Haran, and S.-I. An (2018): Stilt: easy emulation of AR(1) computer model output in multidimensional parameter space. Accepted to The R Journal (2018).

  2. *Wong, A.; A. **Klufas, V. *Srikrishnan, and K. Keller: Neglecting Model Structural Uncertainty Underestimates Upper Tails of Flood Risk. Environmental Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aacb3d (2018).

  3. *Garner, G. and K. Keller: Using Direct Policy Search to Identify Robust Strategies in Adapting to Uncertain Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge.  Environmental Modeling and Software, 107, 96-104, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.05.006  (2018).

  4. Singh, R., J. Quinn, P. Reed, and K. Keller: Skill (or lack thereof) of data-model fusion techniques to provide an early warning signal for an approaching tipping point.  PLOS One https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0191768 (2018).

  5. Hermes, C., K. Keller, R. Nicholas, G. Segelbacher, and H. Martin Schaefer: Projected impacts of climate change on habitat availability for an endangered parakeet. PLOS One, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0191773, (2018).

  6. Sriver, R., R. Lempert, P. Wikman-Svahn, and K. Keller: Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions. PLoS ONE 13(2): e0190641. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0190641 (2018).

  7. *Fuller, R., A. **Wong, and K. Keller: Probabilistic Inversion of Expert Assessments to Inform Projections about Antarctic Ice Sheet Responses. PLOS One 12(12): e0190115. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0190115 (2018).

  8. Vezer, M., A. *Bakker, K. Keller, and N. Tuana: Epistemic and ethical trade-offs in decision analytical modelling: A case study of flood risk management in New Orleans. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2123-9. Climatic Change (2017).

  9. Haran, M., W. Chang, K. Keller, R. Nicholas and D. Pollard: Statistics and the Future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Chance Magazine, https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2017.1406758 (2017).

  10. *Wong, A, and K. Keller: Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections: A Case Study for New Orleans. Earth Futures  , http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000607, (2017).

  11. **Lee, B., M. Haran, and K. Keller: Decadal-scale detection time for potentially increasing Atlantic storm surges in a warming climate. Geophysical Research Letters https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074606 (2017).

  12. *Wong, T.E., A. *Bakker, and K. Keller: Impacts of Antarctic Fast Dynamics on Sea-Level Projections and Coastal Flood Defense. Climatic Change, Volume 144, Issue 2, pp 347–364, (2017).

  13. *Oddo, P., B. S. **Lee, G. G. *Garner, V. Srikrishnan, P. M. Reed, C. E. Forest, and K. Keller: Improved sea-level rise and storm surge projections increase economically optimal investments in coastal protection. Risk Analysis, https://doi.org/0.1111/risa.12888  (2017).

  14. *Wong, A., A. Bakker, K. Ruckert, P. Applegate, A. Slangen, and K. Keller: BRICK, a simple, accessible, and transparent model framework for climate and regional sea-level projections. Geoscientific Model Development, gmd-2016-303, (2017).

  15. **Ceres, R., C. E. Forest, and K. Keller: Understanding the detectability of potential changes to the 100-year peak storm surge. Climate Change, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2075-0 (2017). Also as a preprint at: http://arxiv.org/abs/1708.09023  (2017).

  16. *Wong, A., V. **Srikrishnan, D. Hadka, and K. Keller: A Multi-Objective Decision-Making Approach to the Journal Submission Problem. PLoS One http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0178874 (2017).

  17. *Bakker, A.M.R., T.E. Wong, K.L. Ruckert, and K. Keller:  Sea-level projections representing deeply uncertain ice-sheet contributions. Nature Scientific Reports, Scientific Reports 7, Article number: 3880, doi:10.1038/s41598-017-04134-5 (2017).

  18. Adler, M., D. Anthoff, V. Bosetti, G. **Garner, K. Keller, and N. Treich: Priority for the Worse Off and the Social Cost of Carbon.  Nature Climate Change
    https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3298, (Highlighted in a News and Views Article, see: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3302 (2017).

  19. *Ruckert, K. L., P. C. *Oddo, and K. Keller: Ruckert, K. L., P. C. Oddo, and K. Keller: Impacts of representing sea-level rise uncertainty on future flood risks: An example from San Francisco Bay. PLOS ONE 12(3) e0174666 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0174666, (2017).

  20. Quinn, J. D., P. M. Reed, and K. Keller: Direct Policy Search for Robust Multi-Objective Management of Deeply Uncertain Socio-Ecological Tipping Points. Journal of Environmental Modelling and Software 92, 125–141, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.02.017 (2017).

  21. Bessette, D. L. Mayer, B. Cwik, M. Vezer, K. Keller, R. Lempert, and N. Tuana: Building a Values-informed Mental Model for New Orleans Climate Risk Management. Risk Analysis http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/risa.12743/full (2017).

  22. **Baldwin, D., S. Manfreda, K. Keller, and E.A.H. Smithwick: Predicting root zone soil moisture with soil properties and satellite near-surface moisture data across the conterminous United States. Journal of Hydrology http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.01.020 (2017).

  23. *Ruckert, K., G. Shaffer, D. Pollard, T. E. *Wong, C. E. Forest, and K. Keller: Assessing the impact of retreat mechanisms in a simple Antarctic ice sheet model using Bayesian calibration. PLOS ONE. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0170052 (2017).

  24. Mayer, L. A., K. Loa, B. Cwik, N. Tuana, K. Keller, C. Gonnerman, A. M. Parker, and R. Lempert: Understanding Scientists' Computational Modeling Decisions about Climate Risk Management Strategies using Values-Informed Mental Models. Global Environmental Change, 42, 107-116, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016306197 (2017).

  25. *Bakker, A., D. Louchard, and K. Keller: Deep uncertainties surrounding sea-level projections: Sources and Implications.  Climatic Change, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1864-1 (2016).

  26. *Ruckert, K. L., Y. **Guan, A.M.R. Bakker, C. E. Forest, and K. Keller: The effects of time-varying observation errors on probabilistic sea-level projections.  Climatic Change, doi: 10.1007/s10584-016-1858-z, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1858-z, (2016).

  27. Oschlies, A., H. Held, D. Keller, K. Keller, N. Mengis, M. Quaas, W. Rickels, and H. Schmidt:  Indicators and Metrics for the Assessment of Climate Engineering. Earth Futures 5: 49–58. doi:10.1002/2016EF000449 (2016).

  28. Applegate, P. J., and Keller, K.: Climate engineering (albedo modification) could slow, but probably would not stop, Greenland Ice Sheet melting. Published https://www.climanosco.org/published_article/could-climate-engineering-save-the-greenland-ice-sheet/ (2016).

  29. *Bakker, A., P. Applegate, and K. Keller: A simple, physically motivated model of sea-level contributions from the Greenland ice sheet in response to temperature changes. Environmental Modeling and Software, 9, 27–35, doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.05.003 (2016).

  30. *Garner, G., P. Reed, and K. Keller: Climate risk management requires explicit representation of societal trade-offs. Climatic Change Letters https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1607-3, (2016). 

  31. Diaz, D., and K. Keller: A Potential Disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Implications for Economic Analyses of Climate Policy." American Economic Review, 106(5): 607-11.DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20161103 (2016).

  32. Hadka, D., J. Herman, P. Reed, and K. Keller: OpenMORDM: An Open Source Framework for Many-Objective Robust Decision Making. Environmental Modeling and Software, 74, 114-120  DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.07.014 (2015).

  33. *Applegate, P. J., and K. Keller: How effective is solar radiation management geoengineering in preventing sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet? Environmental Research Letters 10 084018 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084018 (2015).

  34. Ward, V. L., R. *Singh, P. M. Reed, and K. Keller: Confronting Tipping Points: How Well Can Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms Support the Management of Environmental Thresholds? Environmental Modeling and Software 73, 27-43 DOI:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.07.020 (2015).

  35. *Singh, R., P. M. Reed, and K. Keller: Many-objective robust decision making for managing an ecosystem with a deeply uncertain threshold response.  Ecology and Society 20(3): 12. http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-07687-200312 (2015).

  36. Sriver, R. L. S., C. E. Forest, and K. Keller: Effects of initial conditions uncertainty on regional climate variability: An analysis using a low-resolution CESM ensemble.  Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (13), 5468–5476, doi: 10.1002/2015GL064546 (2015).

  37. **Chang, W., M. Haran, R. *Olson, and K. Keller: A composite likelihood approach to computer model calibration using high-dimensional spatial data.  Statistica Sinica 25, 243-259, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.5705/ss.2013.219w (2015).

  38. *Applegate, P, B. R. Parizek, R. E. *Nicholas, R. B. Alley, and K. Keller: Increasing temperature forcing reduces the Greenland Ice Sheet's response time scale. DOI 10.1007/s00382-014-2451-7, Climate Dynamics (2014).

  39. Butler, M.P., P. M. Reed, K. Fisher-Vanden, K. Keller, and T. Wagener: Inaction and climate stabilization uncertainties suggest severe economic costs. Climatic Change, Volume 127, 463-474 (2014).

  40. **Chang, W., P.J. *Applegate, M. Haran, and K. Keller: Probabilistic calibration of a Greenland mass loss with uncertainties.  Geoscientific Model Development, 7, 1933-1943, (2014).

  41. Schueth, J. D., K. Keller, T. J. Bralower, and M. E. Patzkowsky: The Probable Datum Method (PDM): A technique for estimating the age of origination or extinction of nannoplankton. Paleobiology, (40) 541-559 (2014).

  42. Butler, M.P., P.M. Reed, K. Fisher-Vanden, K. Keller, and T. Wagener: Identifying parametric controls and dependencies in integrated assessment models using global sensitivity analysis. Environmental Modelling & Software, 59, 10-29, doi:10.1016/envsoft.2014.05.001 (2014).

  43. Urban, N.M., P. B. Holden, N. R. Edwards, R. L. Sriver, R. *Olson, and K. Keller: Historical and future learning about climate sensitivity. Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 2543-2552 (2014).

  44. Budescu, D. V., S. Broomell, R. J. Lempert, and K. Keller: Aided and unaided decisions with imprecise probabilities in the domain of losses. European Journal of Decision Processes, DOI 10.1007/s40070-013-0023-4 (2014).

  45. Hilton, T. W., K. J. Davis, and K. Keller: Evaluating terrestrial CO2 flux diagnoses and uncertainties from a simple land surface model and its residuals, Biogeosciences, 11, 217-235 (2014).

  46. Chang, W., M. Haran, R. *Olson, and K. Keller: Fast dimension-reduced climate model calibration.  Annals of Applied Statistics 8, 649-673 (2014).

  47. Xiao, J., K. Davis, N. *Urban, and K. Keller: Uncertainty in model parameters and regional carbon fluxes: A model-data fusion approach. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 189-190, 175–186 (2014).

  48. *Sriver, R. L., A. Timmermann, M. Mann, K. Keller, and H. Goosse:  Improved representation of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere dynamics in a coarse-resolution Earth system model. Journal of Climate, 27, 168-185 (2014).

  49. Hargreaves, J., T. Edwards, and K. Keller: Uncertainty, Instability and Irreversibility in the Earth System, EOS Vol. 94, No. 32, 6 (2013).

  50. Hilton, T. W., K. J. Davis, K. Keller, and N. M. *Urban: Improving terrestrial CO2 flux diagnosis using spatial structure in land surface model residuals. Biogeosciences, 10, 4607-4625, doi:10.5194/bg-10-4607-2013 (2013).

  51. *Olson, R., R. L. *Sriver, M. Haran, W. **Chang, N. M. *Urban, and K. Keller: What is the effect of unresolved internal climate variability on climate sensitivity estimates? Journal of Geophysical Research, 118, 4348-4358 (2013).

  52. *Goes, M., G. Goni, and K. Keller: How to reduce biases in XBT measurements by including discrete information from pressure switches, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 30, 810-824 (2013).

  53. *Sriver, R. L., N. M. *Urban, R. *Olson, and K. Keller: Towards a physically plausible upper bound of sea-level rise projections.  Climatic Change Letters, 115, 893-902 (2012).

  54. **Bhat, S. K., M. Haran, R. *Olson, and K. Keller:  Inferring Likelihoods and Climate System Characteristics from Climate Models and Multiple Tracers, Environmetrics, 23, 345-362 (2012).

  55. *Applegate, P. J., N. Kirchner, E. J. Stone, K. Keller, and R. Greve: An assessment of key parametric uncertainties in projections of Greenland Ice Sheet behavior.  The Cryosphere, 6, 589-606, doi:10.5194/tc-6-589-2012 (2012).

  56. Terando, A., K. Keller, and W. Easterling: Probabilistic Projections of Agro-Climate Indices in North America, Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmosphere, 117, D08115 (16pp), doi:10.1029/2012JD017436 (2012).

  57. Hall, J., R. J. Lempert, K. Keller, A. Hackbarth, C. Mijere, and D. J. *McInerney: Robust climate policies under uncertainty: A comparison of Robust Decision-Making and Info-Gap methods, Risk Analysis, 32, 1657-1672 (2012).

  58. Olson, R., R.  L. *Sriver, M. *Goes, N. M. *Urban, H. D. Matthews, M. Haran and K. Keller: A climate sensitivity estimate using Bayesian fusion of instrumental observations and an Earth System model, Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmosphere 117, D04103, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016620 (2012).

  59. Irvine, P., R.  L. *Sriver, R. and K. Keller: Tension between the objectives to reduce sea-level rise and rates of temperature change through solar radiation management, Nature Climate Change, 2, 97-100 (2012).

  60. Tuana, N., R. L.  *Sriver, T. Svoboda, R. *Olson, P. Irvine, J. **Haqq-Misra, and K. Keller: Towards Integrated Ethical and Scientific Analysis of Geoengineering: A Research Agenda, Ethics, Policy & Environment, 15, DOI: 10.1080/21550085.2012.685557 (2012).

  61. Applegate, P., N. M. *Urban, K. Keller, T. V. Lowell, B. J. C. Laabs, M. A. Kelly, and R. B. Alley, Estimating moraine ages from cosmogenic exposure dates: Matching geomorphic process models to exposure dates from single landforms. Quaternary Research, 77, 293-304 (2012).

  62. *McInerney, D., R. Lempert, and K. Keller What are robust strategies in the face of uncertain climate threshold responses? Climatic Change, 112, 547-568 (2011).

  63. **Bhat, K.S., M. Haran, A. Terando, R. *Tonkonojenkov, and K. Keller: Bayesian Model Averaging for Climate Projections, Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, 16, 606-628, DOI: 10.1007/s13253-011-0069-3 (2011).

  64. Terando, A., W. E. Easterling, K. Keller, and D. R. Easterling: Observed and modeled 20th century spatial and temporal patterns of agro-climate indices in North America.  Journal of Climate, 25, 473-490 (2011).

  65. Xiao, J., K. J. Davis, N. M. *Urban, K. Keller, and N. Z. Saliendra: Regional Upscaling of Eddy Flux Measurements in the Upper Midwest, USA: Influence of Land Cover Heterogeneity and Model Parameterization on Regional Carbon Fluxes, Journal of Geophysical research – Biogeosciences 116, G00J06 (15pp), doi:10.1029/2010JG001568, (2011).

  66. Svoboda, T., K. Keller, M. *Goes, and N. Tuana: Sulfate Aerosol Geoengineering: The Question of Justice. Public Affairs Quarterly, 25, 157-180 (2011).

  67. *Goes, M, N. Tuana, and K. Keller: The economics (or lack thereof) of aerosol geoengineering, Climatic Change, 109, 719-744 (2011).

  68. *Goes, M., N. M. *Urban, R. *Tonkonojenkov, M. Haran, A. Schmittner, and K. Keller: What is the skill of ocean tracers in reducing uncertainties about ocean diapycnal mixing and projections of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation? Journal of Geophysical Research (Oceans), 115, C12006 (12pp), doi:10.1029/2010JC006407 (2010).

  69. *Urban, N. M. and K. Keller, Probabilistic hindcasts and projections of the coupled climate, carbon cycle, and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation systems: A Bayesian fusion of century-scale observations with a simple model, Tellus A, 62, 737-750 (2010).

  70. Schienke, E.W., S. D. Baum, N. Tuana, K. J. Davis, and K. Keller: Intrinsic Ethics Regarding Integrated Assessment Models for Climate Management, Science and Engineering Ethics, 10.1007/s11948-010-9209-3 (2010).

  71. *Sriver, R. L., M. *Goes, M. E. Mann, and K. Keller: Climate response to tropical cyclone-induced ocean mixing in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, Journal of Geophysical Research, Oceans, 115, C10042, doi:10.1029/2010JC006106 (2010).

  72. Applegate, P. J., N. M. *Urban, B. J. C. Laabs, K. Keller, and R. B. Alley: Modeling the statistical distributions of cosmogenic exposure dates from moraines. Geoscientific Model Development, 3, 293-307 (2010).

  73. Schienke, E.W., N. Tuana, D. A. Brown, K. J. Davis, K. Keller, J. S. Shortle, M. Stickler, and S. D. Baum: The Role of the NSF Broader Impacts Criterion in Enhancing Research Ethics Pedagogy, Social Epistemology, 23, 317-336 (2009).

  74. Schmittner, A., N. M. *Urban, K. Keller, and D. Matthews: Using ocean tracer observations to reduce the uncertainty of ocean vertical mixing and climate-carbon cycle projections, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 23, GB4009, doi:10.1029/2008GB003421 (2009).

  75. *Urban, M. N. and K. Keller: Complementary observational constraints on climate sensitivity, Geophysical Research Letters, L04708, doi:10.1029/2008GL036457 (2009).

  76. Keller, K., R.S.J. Tol, F.L. Toth, and G.W. Yohe: Abrupt climate change near the poles. Climatic Change, 91, 1-4 (2008).

  77. Ricciuto, D. M., K. J. Davis, and K. Keller. A Bayesian synthesis inversion of carbon cycle observations: How do observations reduce uncertainties about future sinks? Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 22, GB2030, doi:10.1029/2006GB002908 (2008).

  78. Keller, K., D. *McInerney, and D. F. Bradford: Carbon dioxide sequestration: When and how much? Climate Change, 88, 267-291 (2008).

  79. Baehr, J., D. McInerney, K. Keller, and J. Marotzke: Optimization of an observing system design for the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 25, 625-634 (2008).

  80. *Brennan, K., R. Matear, and K. Keller: Measuring oxygen concentrations improves the detection capabilities of an ocean circulation observation array, Journal of Geophysical Research – Oceans, 113, C02019, doi:10.1029/2007JC004113 (2008).

  81. Keller, K. and D. *McInerney, The dynamics of learning about a climate threshold. Climate Dynamics, 30, 321-332 (2008).

  82. Baehr, J., K. Keller, and J. Marotzke: Detecting potential changes in the meridional overturning circulation at 26 oN in the Atlantic. Climatic Change, 91, 11-27 (2008).

  83. *McInerney, D.  and K. Keller: Economically optimal risk reduction strategies in the face of uncertain climate thresholds. Climatic Change, 91 29-41 (2008).

  84. Keller, K., G. Yohe, and M. Schlesinger: Managing the risks of climate thresholds: Uncertainties and needed information. Climatic Change, 91, 5-10 (2008).

  85. Keller, K., A. *Robinson, M. Oppenheimer, and D.F. Bradford: The regrets of procrastination in climate policy. Environmental Research Letters, 2 024004 (4pp)   http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/2/2/024004 (2007). 

  86. Keller, K., C. Deutsch, M. G. *Hall, and D. F. Bradford: Early detection of changes in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: Implications for the design of ocean observation systems. Journal of Climate, 20, 145-157 (2007).

  87. O’Neill, B. C., P. Crutzen, A. Grübler, M. Ha Duong, K. Keller, C. Kolstad, J. Koomey, A. Lange, M. Obersteiner, M. Oppenheimer, W. Pepper, W. Sanderson, M. Schlesinger, N. Treich, A. Ulph, M. Webster, and C. Wilson: Learning and climate change. Climate Policy, 6, 585-589 (2006).

  88. *Min, D.-H. and K. Keller: Errors in estimated temporal tracer trends due to changes in the historical observation network: A case study of oxygen trends in the Southern Ocean. Ocean and Polar Research, 27, 189-195 (2005).

  89. Keller, K., M. G. *Hall, S.-R. Kim, D. F. Bradford, and M. Oppenheimer: Avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Climatic Change, 73, 227-238 (2005).

  90. Keller, K., B. M. Bolker, and D. F. Bradford: Uncertain climate thresholds and economic optimal growth.  Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 48, 723-741, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2003.10.003 (2004).

  91. Moles, C. M., J. R. Banga, and K. Keller: Solving nonconvex climate control problems: Pitfalls and algorithm approaches. Applied Soft Computing, 5 (1), 35-44 (2004).

  92. Kraepiel, M. L., K. Keller, H. B. Chin, E. G. Malcolm, and F. M. M. Morel, Sources and variations of mercury in tuna, Environmental Science and Technology, 37, 5551-5558 (2003).

  93. Keller, K., R. Slater, M. Bender, and R. M. Key: Decadal scale trends in North Pacific nutrient and oxygen concentrations: Biological or physical explanation?  Deep-Sea Research, 49, 345-362 (2002).

  94. Gruber, N., K. Keller, and R. M. Key: What story is told by oceanic tracer concentrations?  Science, 290, 455 (2000).

  95. Keller, K., K. Tan, F. M. M. Morel, and D. F. Bradford: Preserving the ocean circulation: Implications for climate policy. Climatic Change, 47, 17-43 (2000).

  96. Keller, K. and F. M. M. Morel: A model of carbon isotopic fractionation and active carbon uptake in phytoplankton.  Marine Ecology Progress Series, 182, 295-298 (1999).

  97. Kraepiel, M., K. Keller, and F. M. M. Morel: A model for metal adsorption on Montmorillonite. Journal of Colloid and Interface Science, 210, 43-54 (1999).

  98. Kraepiel, M., K. Keller, and F. M. M. Morel: On the acid-base chemistry of permanently charged minerals. Environmental Science and Technology, 32, 2829-2838 (1998).

Parts of books

  1. Keller, K. and R. *Nicholas: Improving climate projections to better inform climate risk management. Invited book chapter for The Oxford Handbook of the Macroeconomics of Global Warming. Editors: W. Semmler and W. Bernard. New York: Oxford University Press DOI:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199856978.013.0002, (2015).

  2. Clarke, L., K. Jiang, K. Akimoto, M. Babiker, G. Blanford, K. Fisher-Vanden, J. C.  Hourcade, V. Krey, E. Kriegler, A. Löschel, D. McCollum, S. Paltsev, S. Rose, P. R. Shukla, M. Tavoni, B. van der Zwaan, D. P. van Vuuren, H. Böttcher, K. Calvin, K. Daenzer, M. den Elzen, S. Dhar, J. Eom, S. Hoeller, N. Höhne, N. Hultman, P. Irvine, J. Jewell, N. Johnson, A. Kanudia, A. Kelemen, K. Keller, P. Kolp, M. Lawrence, T. Longden, J. Lowe, A. Lucena, G. Luderer, G. Marangoni, N. Moore, I. Mouratiadou, N. Petermann, P. Rasch, K. Riahi, J. Rogelj, M. Schaeffer, S. Schäfer, J. Sedlacek, L. Sokka, C. von Stechow, I. Sue Wing, N. Vaughan, T. Wiertz, and T. Zwickel: Assessing transformation pathways.  Chapter 6 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report, Working group III: Mitigation of Climate Change.  Cambridge University Press (2014).

  3. Oppenheimer, M., M. Campos, R. Warren, J. Birkmann, G. Luber, B. O’Neill, K. Takahashi, F. Berkhout, P. Dube, W. Foden, S. Greiving, S. Hsiang, M. Johnston, K. Keller, J. Kleypas, R. Kopp, R. Licker, C. Peres, J. Price, A. Robock, W. Schlenker, J. R. Stepp, R. Tol, D. van Vuuren: Emergent Risks and Key Vulnerabilities. Chapter in: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects.  Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1039-1099 (2014).

  4. Keller K.: Bayesian Decision Theory and Climate Change. In: Shogren, J.F., (ed.) Encyclopedia of Energy, Natural Resource, and Environmental Economics, 3, 1-4 Amsterdam: Elsevier, DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-12-375067-9.00143-1 (2013).

  5. Keller, K.: Conveyor Belt Circulation, “Encyclopedia of Climate and Weather” (2nd Edition), Oxford University Press. ISBN: 9780199765324. 293-297 (2011).

  6. Keller, K., S.-R. Kim, J. Baehr, D. F. Bradford, and M. Oppenheimer: What is the economic value of information about climate thresholds? Book chapter in: Integrated Assessment of Human Induced Climate Change, Chief Editor: Michael Schlesinger, Cambridge University Press (2007). 

  7. Patwardhan, A., S. Semenov, S. Schneider, I. Burton, C. Magadza, M. Oppenheimer, B. Pittock, A. Rahman, J. Smith, A. Suarez, F. Yamin, K. Keller, A Todorov, A. Finkel, D. MacMynowski, M. Mastrandrea, M. Fuessel, J. Corfee-Morlot, R. Sukumar, J.-P. van Ypersele, and J. Zillman: Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change, Chapter 19 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, Working group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Cambridge University Press (2007).

Peer-reviewed reports issued by governmental agencies

  1. Lempert, R., R. L. *Sriver, and K. Keller: Projections to Support Infrastructure Investment Decisions, California Energy Commission, Publication Number: CEC-500-2012-056 (2012).

Peer-reviewed reports issued by nonprofit organizations

  1. Lempert, R.J., G. *Marangoni, K. Keller, and J. Duke: Is Climate Restoration an Appropriate Climate Policy Goal? RAND Corporation research report, RR-2442-RC, DOI: 10.7249/RR2442, (2018).

Books

  1. Applegate, P.A. and Klaus Keller (co-editors): Risk analysis in the Earth Sciences: A Lab manual.  https://leanpub.com/raes (2016).

Articles / Chapters published in non-refereed journals / books / webpages

  1. Berg, N., D. Knopman, B. Hobbs, K. Keller, and R. Nicholas. “Resilience to a Changing Climate in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed: Progress, Challenges, Information Gaps, and Opportunities”. RAND working paper (2017).

  2. Klufas, A., A. E. *Wong, and K. Keller: Evaluating the Sensitivity of Flood Return Levels to Data Length by Maximum Likelihood Estimation. Preprint at  arxiv.org/abs/1709.08776v1 (2017).

  3. Simpson, M.B., *Garner, G., Wallgrün, J. O., Keller, K., D. Oprean, Bansal, S., & Klippel, A.: Immersive Visual Analytics for Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change.  Proceedings of the 2016 ACM Companion on Interactive Surfaces and Spaces, ACM, pages 99-105, http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3009939.3009955 (2016).

  4. *Applegate, P.A. and K. Keller: Introduction.  Book Chapter in: Risk analysis in the Earth Sciences: A Lab manual.  https://leanpub.com/raes (2015).

  5. *Applegate, P.A. and K. Keller: Exercise #4: What is the economically “optimal” height of flood protection structures? The Van Dantzig (1956) example.  Book Chapter in: Risk analysis in the Earth Sciences: A Lab manual.  https://leanpub.com/raes (2015).

  6. *Applegate, P.A. and K. Keller: Exercise #6: Coin flipping and the bootstrap. Book Chapter in: Risk analysis in the Earth Sciences: A Lab manual.  https://leanpub.com/raes (2015).

  7. *Applegate, P.A. R. Sriver, and K. Keller: Exercise #7: Performing a simple bootstrap with the sea level data. Book Chapter in: Risk analysis in the Earth Sciences: A Lab manual.  https://leanpub.com/raes (2015).

  8. *Applegate, P.A. G. *Garner, R. Alley, and K. Keller: Exercise #8: Climate policy and the DICE model. Book Chapter in: Risk analysis in the Earth Sciences: A Lab manual.  https://leanpub.com/raes (2015).

  9. Adams, P., N. Donahue, M. Dworkin, W. M. Griffin, K. Keller, I. Azevedo, P. Jaramillo, C. Samaras, and N. Gilbraith: Uncertainty in Climate Science: Not an Excuse for Inaction. Open Letter published and discussed in the New York Times Dot Earth Blog, http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/09/26/
    certainties-uncertainties-and-choices-with-global-warming/ (2014).

  10. Haran, M., R. *Nicholas, and K. Keller: The Role of Statistics in Sustainability Research. Essay Contribution for Math Awareness Month 2013. http://www.mathaware.org/index.html (2013).

  11. Haqq-Misra, J., P. *Applegate, B. Tuttle, and K. Keller: GLISTEN: a computationally efficient model for the Greenland Ice Sheet, The Cryosphere Discussion, 6, 2751-2788 (2012).

  12. Gessler, G. and K. Keller: Vergleich verschiedener Verfahren zur Vergärung von Bioabfällen, Abfallwirtschaftsjournal, (7) 377-383 (1995).

Manuscripts under review / revision for publication

  1. *Srikrishnan, V., R. Alley, and K. Keller: Investing in Science and Using the Results to Improve Climate Risk Management. In revision for projected submission to Nature Climate Change (2018).

  2. *Srikrishnan, V., and K. Keller: Identification of signposts for adaptive flood risk management in the Netherlands. In revision for projected resubmission to Risk Analysis (2018).

  3. *Srikrishnan, V., G. *Marangoni, and K. Keller: Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Climate Sensitivity Tail Estimates. In preparation for submission to Environmental Research Letters (2018).

  4. Lamontagne, J.R., P. M. Reed, G. *Marangoni, K. Keller, and G. G, Garner: Robust pathways to tolerable climate futures require immediate global action. In review at Nature Climate Change (2018).

  5. Ho, E., D. Budescu, V. Bosetti, D. van Vuuren, and K. Keller: Estimation of experts’ subjective probabilities regarding future carbon dioxide emissions. In review at Operations Research (2018).

  6. Hogan, E., R. Nicholas, K. Keller, S. Eilts, and R. L. Sriver: Representation of regional US warm temperature extremes in global climate model ensembles. In review at Journal of Climate (2018).